Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rochester Red Wings v Toledo Mud Hens

Kickoff: 2026-06-19 22:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rochester Red Wings (Local)

Prediction 55.13%1.81fair odd

EV +5.30%

Edge +2.77%

Kelly +5.82%

Growth +0.308%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

48.93%54.28%54.45%57.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.631.721.711.9161.35%58.03%58.65%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toledo Mud Hens (Visit)

Prediction 44.87%2.23fair odd

EV -1.28%

Edge -0.584%

Kelly -1.07%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.89%45.72%45.55%51.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.832.082.102.2054.64%48.15%47.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rochester Red Wings (Local): 55.13%; Toledo Mud Hens (Visit): 44.87%. For Rochester Red Wings (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.91, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +5.30%E +2.77%K +5.82%G +0.308%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -17.89%E -9.77%K -21.55%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-06-19 22:40
FanDuel🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.08%E -2.34%K -5.51%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.67%E -3.21%K -6.17%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-06-19 22:39
theScore Bet🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.08%E -2.34%K -5.51%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.01%E -3.91%K -7.63%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-19 22:39
Caesars🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.93%E -4.75%K -11.84%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.28%E -0.584%K -1.07%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-19 22:39
1xBet🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.35%EV -9.04%E -5.48%K -13.90%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 43.65%EV -4.43%E -2.08%K -3.92%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-06-19 15:30
BetRivers🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%EV -10.14%E -6.22%K -16.09%G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -2.63%E -1.21%K -2.25%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-06-19 18:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.