The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rochester Red Wings v Toledo Mud Hens

Kickoff: 2026-06-17 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rochester Red Wings (Local)

Prediction 59.39%1.68fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -6.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.03%59.41%59.18%60.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.591.6265.36%63.01%62.89%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toledo Mud Hens (Visit)

Prediction 40.61%2.46fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.13%40.59%40.82%41.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.242.322.302.4044.64%43.18%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rochester Red Wings (Local): 59.39%; Toledo Mud Hens (Visit): 40.61%. For Toledo Mud Hens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -2.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -9.02%E -4.03%K -7.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-17 13:50
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.39%E -2.73%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.59%E -2.86%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-17 14:10
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -4.98%E -3.11%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -5.78%E -2.49%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-17 14:10
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.58%E -3.51%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.53%E -1.05%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-17 14:24
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.58%E -3.51%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.59%E -2.86%K -5.07%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-17 15:29
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -6.76%E -4.31%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.89%EV -7.81%E -3.44%K -6.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-17 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -9.14%E -5.97%K -17.24%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -3.34%E -1.40%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-17 14:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.