The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Reno Aces v Tacoma Rainiers

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 01:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reno Aces (Local)

Prediction 42.59%2.35fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.511%
Kelly -0.898%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.66%43.19%41.72%48.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.202.232.3251.81%45.50%44.94%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tacoma Rainiers (Visit)

Prediction 57.41%1.74fair odd
EV +2.76%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +3.49%
Growth +0.096%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.88%56.81%58.28%59.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.641.621.7962.89%60.98%61.92%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Reno Aces (Local): 42.59%; Tacoma Rainiers (Visit): 57.41%. For Tacoma Rainiers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.79, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%EV -17.80%E -9.22%K -19.14%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%EV +2.76%E +1.54%K +3.49%G +0.096%7.7%2026-07-21 22:05
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -12.69%E -6.19%K -12.08%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -0.111%E -0.064%K -0.150%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-21 21:18
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.17%E -1.85%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.00%E -4.32%K -11.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 21:20
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.30%E -2.86%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.00%E -4.32%K -11.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 23:49
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -7.15%E -3.28%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -7.00%E -4.32%K -11.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-22 01:20
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -2.04%E -0.886%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -7.57%E -4.70%K -12.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-21 22:05
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.30%E -2.86%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.57%E -4.70%K -12.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-21 22:40
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -2.04%E -0.886%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -8.15%E -5.09%K -13.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 22:05
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.17%E -1.85%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -8.15%E -5.09%K -13.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-21 22:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -1.19%E -0.511%K -0.898%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -8.72%E -5.49%K -14.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 22:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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