The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Reno Aces v Tacoma Rainiers

Kickoff: 2026-07-27 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reno Aces (Local)

Prediction 39.40%2.54fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +0.940%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.27%39.70%39.41%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.342.352.6047.62%42.68%42.55%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tacoma Rainiers (Visit)

Prediction 60.60%1.65fair odd
EV +1.20%
Edge +0.718%
Kelly +1.79%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%60.30%60.59%63.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.571.561.6767.57%63.57%63.90%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Reno Aces (Local): 39.40%; Tacoma Rainiers (Visit): 60.60%. For Reno Aces (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV +2.44%E +0.940%K +1.53%G +0.037%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -10.31%E -6.97%K -21.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 00:55
Caesars🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -1.50%E -0.599%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.47%E -3.50%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 00:58
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.47%E -3.50%K -9.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-27 01:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.47%E -3.50%K -9.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-27 01:00
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -3.65%E -2.29%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 22:55
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.28%E -4.76%K -13.74%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-27 00:55
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.86%E -3.10%K -8.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-27 01:00
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.62%EV -12.13%E -5.44%K -9.87%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.38%EV -3.65%E -2.29%K -6.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-27 01:00
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -13.32%E -6.05%K -11.10%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -1.83%E -1.13%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 22:09
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -17.26%E -8.22%K -15.69%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV +1.20%E +0.718%K +1.79%G +0.021%7.5%2026-07-26 19:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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