The School of Odds
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Reno Aces v Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reno Aces (Local)

Prediction 56.16%1.78fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -4.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.67%56.04%56.08%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.691.691.7260.61%59.31%59.17%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 43.84%2.28fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%43.96%43.92%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.122.102.2048.78%47.24%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Reno Aces (Local): 56.16%; Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit): 43.84%. For Reno Aces (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.72, with an expected value of -3.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -3.40%E -1.98%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -8.82%E -4.24%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 00:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.96%E -2.32%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.95%E -3.78%K -7.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-01 00:03
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.52%E -2.66%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.14%E -4.94%K -9.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 00:04
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.64%EV -5.08%E -3.01%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.36%EV -7.07%E -3.33%K -6.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-01 00:05
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.08%E -3.01%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.95%E -3.78%K -7.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-01 00:03
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.17%EV -5.08%E -3.01%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.83%EV -8.82%E -4.24%K -8.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-01 00:09
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.21%E -3.72%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.56%E -1.62%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-01 00:04
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.21%E -3.72%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.56%E -1.62%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-01 00:04
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.21%E -3.72%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.95%E -3.78%K -7.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-01 00:04
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -7.33%E -4.44%K -11.27%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -6.19%E -2.89%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-01 00:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.