The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Reno Aces v Round Rock Express

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 01:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reno Aces (Local)

Prediction 55.10%1.81fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.764%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.88%54.80%55.31%56.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.721.711.7959.88%58.24%58.48%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Round Rock Express (Visit)

Prediction 44.90%2.23fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.49%45.20%44.69%48.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.072.082.1751.81%48.40%48.19%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Reno Aces (Local): 55.10%; Round Rock Express (Visit): 44.90%. For Reno Aces (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.79, with an expected value of -1.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%EV -1.37%E -0.764%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%EV -13.35%E -6.92%K -14.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-11 13:49
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.47%E -1.40%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -10.20%E -5.10%K -10.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-12 00:53
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.12%E -2.37%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.96%E -3.88%K -7.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 00:24
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.78%E -3.38%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 00:30
Hard Rock Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.78%E -3.38%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 00:19
1xBet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%EV -5.78%E -3.38%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -8.41%E -4.12%K -8.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 00:54
FanDuel1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.33%E -3.72%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.82%E -2.27%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 00:30
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.33%E -3.72%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.96%E -3.88%K -7.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-12 00:49
BetOnline.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -7.98%E -4.78%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -2.57%E -1.18%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-11 23:59
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.98%E -4.78%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 00:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.