The School of Odds

Reno Aces v Round Rock Express

2026-07-11 01:35 UTC — MiLB

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Reno Aces (Local)

Prediction 51.07%1.96fair odd
EV -5.53%
Edge -2.99%
Kelly -6.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.81%51.01%51.07%51.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.831.831.8556%55%55%54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Round Rock Express (Visit)

Prediction 48.93%2.04fair odd
EV -5.56%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -5.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.93%48.99%48.93%49.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.871.901.911.9353%53%52%52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.53%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 15:30
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 15:29
Caesars1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 15:49
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 15:55
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 16:14
1xBet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV -7.51%E -3.98%K -8.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 17:25
BetRivers1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV -7.51%E -3.98%K -8.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 15:44
Hard Rock Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%EV -8.08%E -4.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%EV -8.49%E -4.54%K -9.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-10 15:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.