The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Reno Aces v Las Vegas Aviators

Kickoff: 2026-05-14 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reno Aces (Local)

Prediction 55.33%1.81fair odd
EV +3.47%
Edge +1.86%
Kelly +3.99%
Growth +0.138%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%55.33%55.12%55.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.761.711.8759.17%56.86%58.48%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Las Vegas Aviators (Visit)

Prediction 44.67%2.24fair odd
EV -4.86%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -4.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.24%44.67%44.88%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.022.102.1353.48%49.61%47.62%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Reno Aces (Local): 55.33%; Las Vegas Aviators (Visit): 44.67%. For Reno Aces (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +3.47%E +1.86%K +3.99%G +0.138%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -16.47%E -8.81%K -18.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-14 16:33
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.08%EV +0.704%E +0.387%K +0.858%G +0.006%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.92%EV -15.13%E -7.96%K -16.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 17:10
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -0.403%E -0.224%K -0.503%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -14.68%E -7.69%K -16.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-14 17:40
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.38%E -3.15%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 18:00
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.38%E -3.15%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 18:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.38%E -3.15%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -6.49%E -3.84%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -4.86%E -2.28%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.