The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Reno Aces v Las Vegas Aviators

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reno Aces (Local)

Prediction 46.61%2.15fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%46.61%45.93%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.052.0651.28%49.37%48.78%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Las Vegas Aviators (Visit)

Prediction 53.39%1.87fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -4.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.39%54.07%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.751.741.8057.80%57.24%57.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Reno Aces (Local): 46.61%; Las Vegas Aviators (Visit): 53.39%. For Las Vegas Aviators (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -3.91%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -3.98%E -1.93%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -6.57%E -3.76%K -8.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-18 16:40
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.11%E -4.09%K -9.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 16:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.11%E -4.09%K -9.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 17:09
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.11%E -4.09%K -9.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 20:43
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -5.84%E -2.89%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-18 19:35
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.10%E -4.67%K -9.58%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-18 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.