The School of Odds
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Reno Aces v El Paso Chihuahuas

2026-08-08 01:35 UTC — MiLB

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reno Aces (Local)

Prediction 54.09%1.85fair odd
EV -5.34%
Edge -3.05%
Kelly -7.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%54.20%54.09%54.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.731.741.7558.82%57.77%57.47%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

El Paso Chihuahuas (Visit)

Prediction 45.91%2.18fair odd
EV -5.42%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -5.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.33%45.80%45.91%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.042.052.0650.00%49.10%48.78%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Reno Aces (Local): 54.09%; El Paso Chihuahuas (Visit): 45.91%. For Reno Aces (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.75, with an expected value of -5.34%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -5.34%E -3.05%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -5.42%E -2.63%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 15:15
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.88%E -3.38%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 15:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.88%E -3.38%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 15:35
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.88%E -3.38%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 15:32
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.88%E -3.38%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 15:58
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -6.42%E -3.71%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -7.26%E -3.59%K -7.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-07 15:40
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.42%E -3.71%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-07 15:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.51%E -4.39%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 15:14
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.05%E -4.73%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.