The School of Odds
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Reno Aces v El Paso Chihuahuas

2026-08-09 01:35 UTC — MiLB

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reno Aces (Local)

Prediction 55.19%1.81fair odd
EV -5.63%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -7.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.40%55.31%55.12%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.701.701.7159.88%58.94%58.82%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

El Paso Chihuahuas (Visit)

Prediction 44.81%2.23fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.01%44.69%44.88%45.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.082.092.1549.02%47.97%47.85%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Reno Aces (Local): 55.19%; El Paso Chihuahuas (Visit): 44.81%. For El Paso Chihuahuas (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.15, with an expected value of -3.65%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.63%E -3.29%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.89%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 12:29
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.63%E -3.29%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.89%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 12:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -5.63%E -3.29%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -6.34%E -3.03%K -5.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 13:04
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%EV -5.63%E -3.29%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -8.58%E -4.20%K -8.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 12:44
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.19%E -3.64%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.13%E -3.97%K -7.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 12:55
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.74%E -3.99%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.65%E -1.70%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 15:14
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.74%E -3.99%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.89%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 13:43
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -7.29%E -4.34%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%EV -6.79%E -3.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 15:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -7.84%E -4.70%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -8.13%E -3.97%K -7.74%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 13:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.