The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Omaha Storm Chasers v Toledo Mud Hens

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 00:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Omaha Storm Chasers (Local)

Prediction 41.80%2.39fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%41.96%41.81%43.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.232.252.3046.08%44.87%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toledo Mud Hens (Visit)

Prediction 58.20%1.72fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -4.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.51%58.04%58.19%58.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.621.6763.69%61.81%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Omaha Storm Chasers (Local): 41.80%; Toledo Mud Hens (Visit): 58.20%. For Toledo Mud Hens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -2.80%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 17:53
FanDuel🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -5.53%E -2.45%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 17:39
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 15:50
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.30%E -3.91%K -10.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 19:27
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.62%E -5.49%K -15.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 18:00
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:35
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.30%E -3.91%K -10.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 21:05
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -8.88%E -4.07%K -7.52%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 16:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -9.30%E -4.28%K -7.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.