The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Norfolk Tides v Worcester Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-08-02 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norfolk Tides (Local)

Prediction 40.57%2.46fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.85%40.55%40.49%41.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.312.302.4044.44%43.27%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Worcester Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 59.43%1.68fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -7.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.82%59.45%59.51%60.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.581.581.6164.10%63.25%63.29%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Norfolk Tides (Local): 40.57%; Worcester Red Sox (Visit): 59.43%. For Norfolk Tides (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -2.63%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.63%E -1.10%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.51%E -3.46%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 13:45
FanDuel2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -5.07%E -2.17%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -6.10%E -3.86%K -10.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 12:54
BetOnline.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -5.88%E -2.53%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -5.51%E -3.46%K -9.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 13:40
BetRivers2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -5.88%E -2.53%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -7.29%E -4.67%K -13.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 14:40
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.32%E -2.68%K -7.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 12:54
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.51%E -3.46%K -9.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 15:15
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 13:24
1xBet2.27I 44.05%NM 40.89%EV -7.91%E -3.48%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 16:10
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-02 14:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.