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Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Norfolk Tides v Worcester Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-07-29 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norfolk Tides (Local)

Prediction 47.20%2.12fair odd
EV +6.20%
Edge +2.76%
Kelly +4.96%
Growth +0.308%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%46.32%47.05%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.052.022.2551.28%48.81%49.50%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Worcester Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 52.80%1.89fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -2.76%
Kelly -6.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.68%52.95%58.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.721.741.8063.69%58.14%57.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Norfolk Tides (Local): 47.20%; Worcester Red Sox (Visit): 52.80%. For Norfolk Tides (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV +6.20%E +2.76%K +4.96%G +0.308%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -17.11%E -10.90%K -30.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-29 21:40
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV +1.48%E +0.690%K +1.29%G +0.019%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -11.83%E -7.08%K -17.65%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-29 22:14
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV +0.067%E +0.032%K +0.060%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%EV -12.35%E -7.44%K -18.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-29 22:00
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.24%E -1.58%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.24%E -6.03%K -14.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-29 22:00
FanDuel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -4.65%E -2.30%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -6.55%E -3.70%K -8.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-29 22:05
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.60%E -2.80%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.55%E -3.70%K -8.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-29 22:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.96%E -4.08%K -8.38%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.96%E -2.76%K -6.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 21:40
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.96%E -4.08%K -8.38%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.96%E -2.76%K -6.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 21:57
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -7.96%E -4.08%K -8.38%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.13%E -4.67%K -10.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-29 22:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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