The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Norfolk Tides v Syracuse Mets

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norfolk Tides (Local)

Prediction 44.90%2.23fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.459%
Kelly +0.826%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%44.94%44.33%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.122.142.2552.36%47.19%46.73%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Syracuse Mets (Visit)

Prediction 55.10%1.81fair odd
EV +0.827%
Edge +0.452%
Kelly +0.996%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%55.06%55.67%58.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.681.671.8363.69%59.56%59.88%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Norfolk Tides (Local): 44.90%; Syracuse Mets (Visit): 55.10%. For Norfolk Tides (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV +1.03%E +0.459%K +0.826%G +0.009%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -13.50%E -8.60%K -23.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-11 13:45
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -1.21%E -0.551%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -10.74%E -6.63%K -17.33%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 11:44
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -1.21%E -0.551%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -10.74%E -6.63%K -17.33%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 14:47
Caesars2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.46%E -1.61%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.89%E -4.08%K -9.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 22:13
1xBet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -3.91%E -1.83%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -9.09%E -5.51%K -13.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 22:24
FanDuel2.12I 47.17%NM 44.36%EV -4.80%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.64%EV -6.89%E -4.08%K -9.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 22:19
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.70%E -2.72%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.99%E -4.78%K -11.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 22:14
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.48%E -1.40%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-11 22:14
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -14.23%E -7.45%K -15.64%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +0.827%E +0.452%K +0.996%G +0.008%7.0%2026-07-11 22:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.