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Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Norfolk Tides v Nashville Sounds

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 20:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norfolk Tides (Local)

Prediction 41.18%2.43fair odd
EV -4.46%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -3.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%41.18%41.24%42.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.272.282.3245.45%44.12%43.86%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nashville Sounds (Visit)

Prediction 58.82%1.70fair odd
EV -5.30%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -8.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.74%58.82%58.76%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.591.601.6164.52%63.03%62.50%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Norfolk Tides (Local): 41.18%; Nashville Sounds (Visit): 58.82%. For Norfolk Tides (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.32, with an expected value of -4.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -4.46%E -1.92%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -8.83%E -5.70%K -16.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 20:20
FanDuel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -6.11%E -2.68%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -5.89%E -3.68%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 18:59
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.40%E -4.27%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.30%E -3.29%K -8.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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