The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Norfolk Tides v Memphis Redbirds

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norfolk Tides (Local)

Prediction 41.37%2.42fair odd
EV +4.26%
Edge +1.69%
Kelly +2.80%
Growth +0.120%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.47%41.29%41.18%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.352.382.5247.62%42.51%42.11%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Memphis Redbirds (Visit)

Prediction 58.63%1.71fair odd
EV +0.250%
Edge +0.146%
Kelly +0.353%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%58.71%58.82%62.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.541.7166.67%63.59%65.15%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Norfolk Tides (Local): 41.37%; Memphis Redbirds (Visit): 58.63%. For Norfolk Tides (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV +4.26%E +1.69%K +2.80%G +0.120%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -11.47%E -7.60%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 22:05
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +3.44%E +1.37%K +2.29%G +0.079%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -12.06%E -8.04%K -24.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 15:45
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV +1.37%E +0.558%K +0.942%G +0.013%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -10.30%E -6.73%K -19.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 15:51
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.42%EV +0.125%E +0.052%K +0.088%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.58%EV -11.47%E -7.60%K -22.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 17:15
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -3.60%E -1.54%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.21%EV -9.72%E -6.31%K -17.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 20:15
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.61%E -3.49%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-21 22:05
Caesars🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.98%E -4.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.09%E -1.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 22:23
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -13.11%E -6.24%K -11.92%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +0.250%E +0.146%K +0.353%G +0.001%6.1%2026-04-21 22:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.