The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Norfolk Tides v Gwinnett Stripers

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norfolk Tides (Local)

Prediction 45.07%2.22fair odd
EV +5.92%
Edge +2.52%
Kelly +4.38%
Growth +0.259%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.90%44.93%45.09%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.122.092.3548.78%47.15%47.85%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gwinnett Stripers (Visit)

Prediction 54.93%1.82fair odd
EV -5.52%
Edge -3.21%
Kelly -7.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.67%55.07%54.91%60.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.681.701.7264.10%59.56%58.82%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Norfolk Tides (Local): 45.07%; Gwinnett Stripers (Visit): 54.93%. For Norfolk Tides (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +5.92%E +2.52%K +4.38%G +0.259%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -14.31%E -9.17%K -25.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-06 20:59
1xBet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.01%EV -2.65%E -1.23%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.99%EV -10.46%E -6.42%K -16.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-06 21:20
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.10%E -1.44%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.17%E -4.24%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 20:55
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.35%E -2.55%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.07%E -3.55%K -8.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-06 21:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -5.80%E -2.78%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -6.07%E -3.55%K -8.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-06 21:11
FanDuel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -6.25%E -3.01%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.52%E -3.21%K -7.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-06 21:15
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%EV -7.15%E -3.47%K -6.75%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.62%E -3.89%K -9.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-06 21:45
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.62%E -3.89%K -9.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-06 22:09
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.17%E -4.24%K -10.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-06 21:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.