Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Memphis Redbirds v Norfolk Tides

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

63%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Memphis Redbirds (Local)

Prediction 63.39%1.58fair odd

EV -3.02%

Edge -1.97%

Kelly -5.69%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.50%63.72%63.27%66.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.481.481.5371.43%67.57%67.57%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norfolk Tides (Visit)

Prediction 36.61%2.73fair odd

EV +0.683%

Edge +0.248%

Kelly +0.390%

Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.73%36.28%36.73%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.602.602.7540.00%38.46%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Memphis Redbirds (Local): 63.39%; Norfolk Tides (Visit): 36.61%. For Norfolk Tides (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.683%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetRivers🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -11.26%E -8.04%K -28.14%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +0.683%E +0.248%K +0.390%G +0.003%	7.8%	2026-09-09 15:15
FanDuel🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.23%EV -6.82%E -4.64%K -14.51%G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV -3.34%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-09 15:50
1xBet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -3.71%E -1.41%K -2.28%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-09 15:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.19%E -4.18%K -12.89%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-09 12:30
Caesars🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.02%E -1.97%K -5.69%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.64%E -2.60%K -4.28%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-09 16:28
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%	2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -7.37%E -2.91%K -4.82%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-09 12:30
Betway🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.19%E -4.18%K -12.89%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-09-09 15:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.