Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Memphis Redbirds v Norfolk Tides

Kickoff: 2026-04-02 23:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

59%

41%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Memphis Redbirds (Local)

Prediction 59.30%1.69fair odd

EV -0.967%

Edge -0.579%

Kelly -1.44%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.51%58.89%59.59%60.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.551.591.591.6764.52%62.78%62.89%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norfolk Tides (Visit)

Prediction 40.70%2.46fair odd

EV -3.95%

Edge -1.67%

Kelly -2.91%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.95%41.11%40.41%43.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.172.292.302.3646.08%43.75%43.48%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Memphis Redbirds (Local): 59.30%; Norfolk Tides (Visit): 40.70%. For Memphis Redbirds (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -0.967%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -0.967%E -0.579%K -1.44%G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -11.68%E -5.38%K -9.99%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-02 19:15
Caesars🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.93%E -2.43%K -6.34%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.39%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-04-02 19:18
theScore Bet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.71%E -3.59%K -9.68%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.36%E -1.85%K -3.23%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-04-02 15:09
Bovada🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.71%E -3.59%K -9.68%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.39%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-02 15:14
FanDuel🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.05%EV -6.90%E -4.39%K -12.10%G +0.000%	2.36I 42.37%NM 39.95%EV -3.95%E -1.67%K -2.91%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-02 15:09
BetRivers🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -7.49%E -4.80%K -13.38%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.39%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-02 20:20
1xBet🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 58.89%EV -8.08%E -5.21%K -14.70%G +0.000%	2.22I 45.05%NM 41.11%EV -9.65%E -4.35%K -7.91%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-04-02 19:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.