Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Memphis Redbirds v Norfolk Tides

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Memphis Redbirds (Local)

Prediction 60.59%1.65fair odd

EV +2.39%

Edge +1.41%

Kelly +3.47%

Growth +0.083%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.76%59.47%60.59%60.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.571.561.6965.36%63.63%64.31%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norfolk Tides (Visit)

Prediction 39.41%2.54fair odd

EV -4.62%

Edge -1.91%

Kelly -3.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.04%40.53%39.41%44.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.132.322.352.4246.95%43.17%42.55%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Memphis Redbirds (Local): 60.59%; Norfolk Tides (Visit): 39.41%. For Memphis Redbirds (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.65. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.69, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV +2.39%E +1.41%K +3.47%G +0.083%	2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -16.05%E -7.53%K -14.20%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-01 16:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.49%E -3.52%K -9.79%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-01 15:24
Bovada🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.49%E -3.52%K -9.79%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.38%E -3.14%K -5.47%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-01 16:34
FanDuel🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.96%EV -6.09%E -3.93%K -11.07%G +0.000%	2.42I 41.32%NM 39.04%EV -4.62%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-01 15:24
1xBet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -6.70%E -4.35%K -12.40%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-04-01 16:49
Betway🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.30%E -4.77%K -13.78%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -7.38%E -3.14%K -5.47%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-04-01 15:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.