The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Memphis Redbirds v Indianapolis Indians

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 00:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Memphis Redbirds (Local)

Prediction 61.05%1.64fair odd
EV -4.76%
Edge -3.05%
Kelly -8.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.51%61.05%61.05%61.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.541.541.5665.36%64.75%64.94%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Indianapolis Indians (Visit)

Prediction 38.95%2.57fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.42%38.95%38.95%39.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.422.402.5042.19%41.30%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Memphis Redbirds (Local): 61.05%; Indianapolis Indians (Visit): 38.95%. For Indianapolis Indians (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.50, with an expected value of -2.63%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.76%E -3.05%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.63%E -1.05%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-01 22:48
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.76%E -3.05%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.53%E -2.72%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-01 20:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -4.76%E -3.05%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -6.92%E -2.89%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-01 20:49
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.50%EV -5.98%E -3.88%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.50%EV -4.19%E -1.70%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-01 20:54
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.59%E -4.31%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.58%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 23:14
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.59%E -4.31%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.31%E -3.07%K -5.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-01 21:39
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -6.59%E -4.31%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -7.70%E -3.25%K -5.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 23:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.