The School of Odds

Memphis Redbirds v Charlotte Knights

Kickoff: 2026-07-05 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Memphis Redbirds (Local)

Prediction 50.71%1.97fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.837%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.85%50.40%51.06%52.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.851.831.9455.56%54.05%54.64%51.55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Charlotte Knights (Visit)

Prediction 49.29%2.03fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -4.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%49.60%48.94%52.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.781.891.911.9556.18%52.87%52.36%51.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers1.94I 51.55%NM 47.85%EV -1.62%E -0.837%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.15%EV -12.26%E -6.89%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-05 16:40
Caesars1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.17%E -2.77%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.83%E -4.19%K -9.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 17:45
FanDuel1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.19%E -3.34%K -7.28%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.87%E -2.52%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 13:15
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.20%E -3.94%K -8.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.85%E -3.07%K -6.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 13:14
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.20%E -3.94%K -8.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.85%E -3.07%K -6.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 13:54
1xBet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -7.20%E -3.94%K -8.68%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV -6.84%E -3.62%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 13:35
BetOnline.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.72%E -4.85%K -10.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.88%E -1.99%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-05 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.