The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Louisville Bats v St. Paul Saints

Kickoff: 2026-06-28 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Bats (Local)

Prediction 54.04%1.85fair odd
EV +8.08%
Edge +4.04%
Kelly +8.08%
Growth +0.653%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%53.05%54.08%55.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.791.752.0059.17%55.75%57.31%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. Paul Saints (Visit)

Prediction 45.96%2.18fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.987%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.24%46.95%45.92%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.972.022.1357.80%50.76%49.38%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Bats (Local): 54.04%; St. Paul Saints (Visit): 45.96%. For Louisville Bats (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +8.08%E +4.04%K +8.08%G +0.653%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -20.49%E -11.84%K -28.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-28 16:59
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +1.05%E +0.563%K +1.21%G +0.013%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -14.05%E -7.51%K -16.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-28 16:58
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%EV -0.028%E -0.015%K -0.033%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -14.05%E -7.51%K -16.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-28 16:55
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -5.43%E -3.10%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -5.32%E -2.58%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-28 17:00
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.97%E -3.43%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.78%E -2.82%K -5.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-28 15:47
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.97%E -3.43%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.78%E -2.82%K -5.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-28 16:59
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.59%E -4.44%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.08%E -4.04%K -8.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-28 16:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -8.67%E -5.13%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -2.10%E -0.987%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-28 15:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.