Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Bats v Nashville Sounds

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 16:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

59%

41%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Bats (Local)

Prediction 58.71%1.70fair odd

EV +0.391%

Edge +0.228%

Kelly +0.550%

Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.00%58.71%59.59%61.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.611.591.7166.67%62.27%62.89%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nashville Sounds (Visit)

Prediction 41.29%2.42fair odd

EV -0.899%

Edge -0.375%

Kelly -0.642%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.46%41.29%40.41%45.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.092.222.202.4047.85%45.09%45.45%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Bats (Local): 58.71%; Nashville Sounds (Visit): 41.29%. For Louisville Bats (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.70. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.391%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV +0.391%E +0.228%K +0.550%G +0.002%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -13.70%E -6.55%K -12.57%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-06 15:20
William Hill🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -1.96%E -1.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -13.29%E -6.33%K -12.08%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-06 15:20
Bovada🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 58.05%EV -6.65%E -4.19%K -11.28%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -9.16%E -4.16%K -7.63%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-06 15:56
Betway🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.42%E -5.39%K -15.03%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.03%E -2.19%K -3.87%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-06 15:59
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -11.94%E -7.96%K -23.88%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -0.899%E -0.375%K -0.642%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-06 16:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.