The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Louisville Bats v Nashville Sounds

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Bats (Local)

Prediction 55.53%1.80fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -4.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%55.31%55.70%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.691.691.7459.88%59.04%59.17%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nashville Sounds (Visit)

Prediction 44.47%2.25fair odd
EV -4.83%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -4.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.13%44.69%44.30%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.102.102.1448.78%47.62%47.62%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Bats (Local): 55.53%; Nashville Sounds (Visit): 44.47%. For Louisville Bats (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -3.38%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.38%E -1.94%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-05 18:08
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.05%E -2.95%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-05 17:25
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -6.16%E -3.64%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -4.83%E -2.26%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-05 17:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -6.16%E -3.64%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -5.27%E -2.48%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-05 17:30
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.16%E -3.64%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-05 19:35
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.17%EV -6.16%E -3.64%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.83%EV -7.50%E -3.60%K -6.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-05 20:20
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.27%E -4.35%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 17:50
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.27%E -4.35%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 18:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.