Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Bats v Iowa Cubs

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Bats (Local)

Prediction 64.48%1.55fair odd

EV +14.13%

Edge +7.98%

Kelly +18.35%

Growth +2.59%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.05%64.48%69.28%71.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.291.421.311.7777.52%70.30%76.05%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iowa Cubs (Visit)

Prediction 35.52%2.82fair odd

EV +17.21%

Edge +5.22%

Kelly +7.48%

Growth +1.29%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.10%35.52%30.72%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.883.103.3050.00%34.78%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Bats (Local): 64.48%; Iowa Cubs (Visit): 35.52%. For Iowa Cubs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +14.13%E +7.98%K +18.35%G +2.59%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -28.96%E -14.48%K -28.96%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-04-01 16:24
theScore Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -14.24%E -10.71%K -43.15%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV +6.55%E +2.18%K +3.28%G +0.215%	8.5%	2026-04-01 16:40
Betway🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -16.17%E -12.44%K -53.91%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV +13.66%E +4.27%K +6.21%G +0.848%	8.2%	2026-04-01 16:40
Bovada🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -16.82%E -13.04%K -57.99%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV +17.21%E +5.22%K +7.48%G +1.29%	7.8%	2026-04-01 16:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.