The School of Odds
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Lehigh Valley IronPigs v Rochester Red Wings

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local)

Prediction 53.62%1.86fair odd
EV +0.271%
Edge +0.145%
Kelly +0.311%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%53.50%54.09%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.711.671.8761.73%58.39%59.88%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Red Wings (Visit)

Prediction 46.38%2.16fair odd
EV +2.03%
Edge +0.925%
Kelly +1.70%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%46.50%45.91%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.082.132.2053.48%48.13%47.06%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local): 53.62%; Rochester Red Wings (Visit): 46.38%. For Rochester Red Wings (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -13.13%E -8.11%K -21.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +2.03%E +0.925%K +1.70%G +0.034%7.2%2026-04-09 15:00
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -10.45%E -6.26%K -15.60%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV +1.11%E +0.508%K +0.938%G +0.010%5.8%2026-04-09 20:49
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.99%EV -12.60%E -7.73%K -20.00%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.01%EV +0.179%E +0.083%K +0.155%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 14:40
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -10.45%E -6.26%K -15.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -0.285%E -0.132%K -0.247%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 21:00
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.45%E -6.26%K -15.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.60%E -1.24%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-09 20:49
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.70%E -3.85%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.92%E -2.40%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-09 21:02
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -1.87%E -1.02%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -11.42%E -5.98%K -12.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 21:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +0.271%E +0.145%K +0.311%G +0.001%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -13.27%E -7.10%K -15.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.