The School of Odds
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Lehigh Valley IronPigs v Rochester Red Wings

Kickoff: 2026-06-05 22:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local)

Prediction 43.07%2.32fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.56%43.29%43.08%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.172.202.2548.78%46.08%45.45%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Red Wings (Visit)

Prediction 56.93%1.76fair odd
EV -0.942%
Edge -0.541%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%56.71%56.92%58.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.661.7462.50%60.52%60.24%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local): 43.07%; Rochester Red Wings (Visit): 56.93%. For Rochester Red Wings (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -0.942%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -3.09%E -1.37%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -8.91%E -5.57%K -14.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-05 16:29
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.25%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-05 22:40
Caesars🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.25%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-05 22:38
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.25%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.50%E -3.31%K -8.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-05 22:40
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.25%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.77%E -4.80%K -12.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-05 15:31
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -6.11%E -2.80%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -7.77%E -4.80%K -12.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-05 15:19
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.40%E -3.44%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.77%E -4.80%K -12.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-05 22:39
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.55%E -4.55%K -8.68%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-05 22:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -11.71%E -5.71%K -11.15%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -0.942%E -0.541%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-05 22:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.