The School of Odds
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Lehigh Valley IronPigs v Durham Bulls

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local)

Prediction 53.74%1.86fair odd
EV +8.55%
Edge +4.23%
Kelly +8.39%
Growth +0.717%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.70%52.98%53.05%59.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.751.772.0263.69%57.19%56.50%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Durham Bulls (Visit)

Prediction 46.26%2.16fair odd
EV +6.40%
Edge +2.78%
Kelly +4.92%
Growth +0.315%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.57%47.02%46.95%53.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.772.042.002.3056.50%48.99%50.00%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local): 53.74%; Durham Bulls (Visit): 46.26%. For Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.02, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV +8.55%E +4.23%K +8.39%G +0.717%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -18.12%E -10.24%K -23.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 22:05
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.88%E -2.76%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.48%E -3.74%K -7.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 22:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.88%E -2.76%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.48%E -3.74%K -7.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 21:59
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.55%EV -4.88%E -2.76%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%EV -9.33%E -4.76%K -9.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 22:15
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.11%E -4.74%K -11.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.85%E -1.36%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 21:58
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.99%EV -12.40%E -7.61%K -19.69%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.01%EV -0.078%E -0.036%K -0.067%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 22:15
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -15.63%E -9.95%K -27.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +6.40%E +2.78%K +4.92%G +0.315%7.2%2026-04-21 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.