The School of Odds
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Lehigh Valley IronPigs v Buffalo Bisons

2026-08-01 22:35 UTC — MiLB

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local)

Prediction 47.13%2.12fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.80%47.04%47.05%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.992.002.0752.36%50.34%50.00%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Buffalo Bisons (Visit)

Prediction 52.87%1.89fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -3.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%52.96%52.95%55.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.761.771.8359.52%56.82%56.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local): 47.13%; Buffalo Bisons (Visit): 52.87%. For Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.07, with an expected value of -2.43%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers2.07I 48.31%NM 44.80%EV -2.43%E -1.18%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -11.18%E -6.66%K -16.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-01 17:15
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.73%E -2.87%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.43%E -3.63%K -8.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-01 18:14
Caesars2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.73%E -2.87%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.43%E -3.63%K -8.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-01 18:11
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.73%E -2.87%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.43%E -3.63%K -8.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-01 18:21
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.73%E -2.87%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.54%E -4.94%K -11.70%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-01 12:55
FanDuel1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -6.68%E -3.37%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -5.37%E -3.00%K -6.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-01 19:40
1xBet1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -7.15%E -3.63%K -7.37%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -6.95%E -3.95%K -9.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-01 19:45
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.09%E -4.15%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.01%E -4.60%K -10.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 19:39
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.98%E -5.22%K -10.96%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.25%E -1.78%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 18:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.