Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Valley IronPigs v Buffalo Bisons

Kickoff: 2026-07-30 23:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

36%

64%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local)

Prediction 36.24%2.76fair odd

EV -3.98%

Edge -1.50%

Kelly -2.41%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.73%36.24%36.79%41.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.472.502.6544.44%40.52%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Buffalo Bisons (Visit)

Prediction 63.76%1.57fair odd

EV +0.749%

Edge +0.474%

Kelly +1.29%

Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.75%63.76%63.21%65.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.411.501.491.5870.92%66.76%67.11%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local): 36.24%; Buffalo Bisons (Visit): 63.76%. For Buffalo Bisons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.57. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.749%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -18.47%E -8.21%K -14.78%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV +0.749%E +0.474%K +1.29%G +0.010%	7.7%	2026-07-30 23:16
William Hill🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -13.76%E -5.78%K -9.97%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -2.44%E -1.59%K -4.60%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-07-30 23:15
FanDuel🎯	2.56I 39.06%NM 36.79%EV -7.24%E -2.83%K -4.64%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.21%EV -4.99%E -3.35%K -10.18%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-30 23:30
Betway🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.41%E -3.76%K -6.27%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.63%E -3.80%K -11.72%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-30 23:29
BetRivers🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.73%EV -3.98%E -1.50%K -2.41%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 65.27%EV -10.09%E -7.16%K -24.61%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-07-30 23:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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