The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lehigh Valley IronPigs v Buffalo Bisons

Kickoff: 2026-05-07 22:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local)

Prediction 48.23%2.07fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -3.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.95%49.04%47.88%54.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.881.912.0058.48%53.16%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Buffalo Bisons (Visit)

Prediction 51.77%1.93fair odd
EV +5.62%
Edge +2.75%
Kelly +5.40%
Growth +0.303%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.60%50.96%52.12%53.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.861.812.0457.47%53.67%55.25%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Local): 48.23%; Buffalo Bisons (Visit): 51.77%. For Buffalo Bisons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.93. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%EV -17.53%E -10.25%K -24.69%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV +5.62%E +2.75%K +5.40%G +0.303%7.5%2026-05-07 16:19
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -14.64%E -8.27%K -19.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV +3.54%E +1.77%K +3.54%G +0.126%6.5%2026-05-07 22:33
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.01%EV -13.67%E -7.64%K -17.31%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.99%EV +0.438%E +0.226%K +0.466%G +0.002%7.4%2026-05-07 22:35
Caesars🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.81%E -5.25%K -11.28%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.19%E -1.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-07 22:39
FanDuel🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -4.51%E -2.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24%EV -6.29%E -3.48%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 22:35
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.96%E -3.05%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-07 22:29
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-07 22:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -3.54%E -1.77%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -8.36%E -4.73%K -10.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-07 22:35
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -5.96%E -3.05%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -9.92%E -5.70%K -13.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-07 22:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.