The School of Odds
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Las Vegas Aviators v Tacoma Rainiers

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Vegas Aviators (Local)

Prediction 51.31%1.95fair odd
EV -5.08%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -5.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.81%51.38%51.28%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.821.831.8555.56%54.95%54.64%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tacoma Rainiers (Visit)

Prediction 48.69%2.05fair odd
EV -5.05%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -5.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%48.62%48.72%49.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.891.921.911.9552.91%52.22%52.36%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Las Vegas Aviators (Local): 51.31%; Tacoma Rainiers (Visit): 48.69%. For Tacoma Rainiers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.95, with an expected value of -5.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.08%E -2.75%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.03%E -3.12%K -6.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 12:59
Hard Rock Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.11%E -3.34%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 13:09
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.11%E -3.34%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 12:59
Caesars1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.11%E -3.34%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 13:25
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.11%E -3.34%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 13:44
1xBet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -6.11%E -3.34%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV -7.97%E -4.22%K -8.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-12 13:38
BetOnline.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.64%E -4.25%K -9.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.05%E -2.59%K -5.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 13:19
BetRivers1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -7.64%E -4.25%K -9.56%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -6.51%E -3.39%K -7.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-12 14:45
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.64%E -4.25%K -9.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-12 13:04
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.64%E -4.25%K -9.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-12 16:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.