Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Vegas Aviators v Tacoma Rainiers

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 02:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Vegas Aviators (Local)

Prediction 58.82%1.70fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -2.90%
Kelly -7.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.74%58.78%58.82%59.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.611.611.6264.10%62.26%62.11%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tacoma Rainiers (Visit)

Prediction 41.18%2.43fair odd
EV -5.29%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -4.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.63%41.22%41.18%42.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.272.262.3045.45%44.15%44.15%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.71%E -2.90%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.29%E -2.30%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 23:29
Hard Rock Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.71%E -2.90%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.35%E -3.27%K -5.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-09 23:34
BetOnline.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -4.71%E -2.90%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -7.77%E -3.47%K -6.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 23:44
theScore Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.29%E -3.29%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.29%E -2.30%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 23:49
Bovada1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.29%E -3.29%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.35%E -3.27%K -5.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-09 16:33
1xBet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.29%E -3.29%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.41%E -4.28%K -7.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 22:55
FanDuel1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.88%E -3.68%K -9.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.29%E -2.30%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-09 23:49
BetRivers1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -8.23%E -5.28%K -14.71%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -6.12%E -2.68%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-09 21:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.