The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Las Vegas Aviators v Tacoma Rainiers

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 02:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Vegas Aviators (Local)

Prediction 53.03%1.89fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -3.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%53.30%53.05%56.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.751.751.8360.98%57.11%56.98%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tacoma Rainiers (Visit)

Prediction 46.97%2.13fair odd
EV +0.524%
Edge +0.245%
Kelly +0.460%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.39%46.70%46.95%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.012.002.1452.36%49.83%50.00%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Las Vegas Aviators (Local): 53.03%; Tacoma Rainiers (Visit): 46.97%. For Tacoma Rainiers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.524%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.61%EV -13.04%E -7.95%K -20.37%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.39%EV +0.524%E +0.245%K +0.460%G +0.002%7.7%2026-07-10 22:30
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.73%E -4.45%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.70%E -1.81%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 22:49
FanDuel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.61%E -3.15%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -5.11%E -2.53%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-10 20:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.14%E -3.47%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-10 20:09
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.14%E -3.47%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-10 20:04
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.14%E -3.47%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-10 20:08
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.73%E -4.45%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 00:34
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.26%E -4.78%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-10 21:04
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.73%E -4.45%K -10.45%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.40%E -4.31%K -8.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-10 23:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.96%E -1.62%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 23:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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