The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Las Vegas Aviators v Salt Lake Bees

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 02:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Vegas Aviators (Local)

Prediction 63.11%1.58fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -6.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%63.11%63.11%63.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.501.501.5368.03%66.89%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Salt Lake Bees (Visit)

Prediction 36.89%2.71fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.27%36.89%36.89%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.492.542.542.6040.16%39.42%39.37%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Las Vegas Aviators (Local): 63.11%; Salt Lake Bees (Visit): 36.89%. For Las Vegas Aviators (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.53, with an expected value of -3.44%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.44%E -2.25%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.93%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-21 21:22
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.09%E -1.57%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-21 15:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.33%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.93%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 20:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -5.33%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -6.67%E -2.64%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 15:15
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.33%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.78%E -3.11%K -5.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 15:45
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.33%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.78%E -3.11%K -5.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 16:28
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.56%EV -5.97%E -4.00%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.44%EV -8.14%E -3.27%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 19:40
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.60%E -4.46%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.09%E -1.57%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 15:10
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.60%E -4.46%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.78%E -3.11%K -5.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 01:20
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -7.23%E -4.92%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -5.93%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 01:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.