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Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp v Durham Bulls

Kickoff: 2026-07-09 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (Local)

Prediction 56.30%1.78fair odd
EV +5.28%
Edge +2.82%
Kelly +6.07%
Growth +0.320%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%55.37%56.54%57.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.691.671.8761.73%59.26%60.06%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Durham Bulls (Visit)

Prediction 43.70%2.29fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.97%44.63%43.46%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.112.142.2053.48%47.28%46.73%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (Local): 56.30%; Durham Bulls (Visit): 43.70%. For Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +5.28%E +2.82%K +6.07%G +0.320%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -18.28%E -9.77%K -21.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-09 22:59
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.73%E -2.18%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.23%E -3.92%K -7.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-09 22:58
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.86%E -1.75%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 15:05
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.04%E -2.81%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 16:33
FanDuel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -3.86%E -1.75%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-09 15:05
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.35%EV -7.11%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.65%EV -6.92%E -3.25%K -6.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 15:34
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -7.11%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -7.35%E -3.47%K -6.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-09 16:54
Betway🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.80%E -5.43%K -14.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.04%E -2.81%K -5.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-09 20:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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