The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Iowa Cubs v Toledo Mud Hens

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 20:08 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iowa Cubs (Local)

Prediction 46.32%2.16fair odd
EV +3.29%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +2.67%
Growth +0.088%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.23%46.03%46.20%49.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.032.022.2352.36%49.35%49.50%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toledo Mud Hens (Visit)

Prediction 53.68%1.86fair odd
EV +1.46%
Edge +0.773%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.52%53.97%53.80%57.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.761.751.8961.35%56.94%57.14%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iowa Cubs (Local): 46.32%; Toledo Mud Hens (Visit): 53.68%. For Iowa Cubs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV +3.29%E +1.47%K +2.67%G +0.088%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -12.50%E -7.67%K -19.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 19:54
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.05%E -2.46%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.59%E -3.79%K -8.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 19:53
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.05%E -2.46%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.59%E -3.79%K -8.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 19:58
FanDuel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -5.51%E -2.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -5.52%E -3.14%K -7.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 19:55
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.37%E -3.68%K -7.37%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.98%E -2.81%K -6.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 19:45
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.37%E -3.68%K -7.37%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.20%E -4.80%K -11.55%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 19:55
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -10.61%E -5.50%K -11.41%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV +1.46%E +0.773%K +1.64%G +0.024%4.7%2026-09-12 14:44
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -11.53%E -6.04%K -12.68%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.34%EV -2.83%E -1.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.