The School of Odds

Iowa Cubs v St. Paul Saints

2026-07-09 23:38 UTC — MiLB

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Iowa Cubs (Local)

Prediction 43.10%2.32fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -3.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.75%43.27%43.15%44.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.102.172.202.2148%46%45%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

St. Paul Saints (Visit)

Prediction 56.90%1.76fair odd
EV -4.98%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -7.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%56.73%56.85%57.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.651.661.671.6761%60%60%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -6.12%E -3.71%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 15:24
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.17%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 15:05
Caesars2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.17%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 15:21
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.17%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.55%E -3.34%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-09 15:05
Bovada2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 16:33
1xBet2.13I 46.95%NM 43.65%EV -8.19%E -3.84%K -7.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.35%EV -6.12%E -3.71%K -9.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 15:45
BetRivers2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.48%E -4.52%K -8.62%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.44%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-09 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.