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Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Iowa Cubs v St. Paul Saints

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 21:08 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iowa Cubs (Local)

Prediction 38.89%2.57fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -2.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.35%38.89%38.89%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.312.372.352.4643.29%42.13%42.55%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. Paul Saints (Visit)

Prediction 61.11%1.64fair odd
EV -6.50%
Edge -4.25%
Kelly -12.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.47%61.11%61.11%61.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.521.531.5366.23%65.65%65.36%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iowa Cubs (Local): 38.89%; St. Paul Saints (Visit): 61.11%. For Iowa Cubs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.46, with an expected value of -4.33%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -4.33%E -1.76%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -6.50%E -4.25%K -12.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 19:50
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -8.61%E -3.66%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.50%E -4.25%K -12.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 19:49
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 39.53%EV -10.17%E -4.40%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.47%EV -7.72%E -5.11%K -15.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 20:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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