Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Indianapolis Indians v Toledo Mud Hens

Kickoff: 2026-07-08 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Indianapolis Indians (Local)

Prediction 48.59%2.06fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -4.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.04%48.39%48.72%49.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.891.921.911.9752.91%52.02%52.36%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toledo Mud Hens (Visit)

Prediction 51.41%1.95fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -5.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.81%51.61%51.28%52.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.821.831.8557.14%55.10%54.64%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -4.27%E -2.17%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -10.04%E -5.74%K -13.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-08 18:55
Caesars1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.24%E -2.69%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.47%E -4.15%K -9.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-08 18:59
FanDuel1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.21%E -3.22%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.90%E -2.65%K -5.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 16:40
theScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.18%E -3.76%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.93%E -3.24%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 16:40
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.18%E -3.76%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.93%E -3.24%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 16:55
Bovada1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.18%E -3.76%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.93%E -3.24%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 18:15
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.18%E -3.76%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.47%E -4.15%K -9.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-08 20:09
1xBet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV -8.16%E -4.32%K -9.16%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -5.93%E -3.24%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-08 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.