The School of Odds
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Indianapolis Indians v Toledo Mud Hens

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Indianapolis Indians (Local)

Prediction 46.22%2.16fair odd
EV -4.79%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -4.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.33%46.19%46.01%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.022.002.0650.00%49.42%50.00%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toledo Mud Hens (Visit)

Prediction 53.78%1.86fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -6.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%53.81%53.99%54.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.741.741.7758.82%57.51%57.47%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indianapolis Indians (Local): 46.22%; Toledo Mud Hens (Visit): 53.78%. For Indianapolis Indians (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.06, with an expected value of -4.79%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -4.79%E -2.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -5.89%E -3.36%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 11:29
Caesars2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.42%E -3.69%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 11:41
Bovada2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.42%E -3.69%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 14:47
BetRivers2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.58%E -5.04%K -12.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-11 13:45
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.81%E -2.72%K -6.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-11 17:54
BetOnline.ag2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.81%E -2.72%K -6.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-11 22:34
1xBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.42%E -3.69%K -8.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 14:09
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.96%E -4.02%K -9.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 11:44
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.04%E -4.70%K -11.32%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-11 20:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.