The School of Odds
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Indianapolis Indians v Omaha Storm Chasers

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Indianapolis Indians (Local)

Prediction 48.94%2.04fair odd
EV +4.72%
Edge +2.21%
Kelly +4.14%
Growth +0.196%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.54%49.13%48.94%55.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.911.912.1458.48%52.28%52.36%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Omaha Storm Chasers (Visit)

Prediction 51.06%1.96fair odd
EV +7.23%
Edge +3.44%
Kelly +6.58%
Growth +0.476%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.88%50.87%51.06%56.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.841.832.1060.61%54.26%54.64%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indianapolis Indians (Local): 48.94%; Omaha Storm Chasers (Visit): 51.06%. For Omaha Storm Chasers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.96. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -16.32%E -9.54%K -22.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV +7.23%E +3.44%K +6.58%G +0.476%6.1%2026-05-05 21:33
FanDuel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.55%E -2.88%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.53%E -2.99%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-05 22:30
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -9.47%E -5.12%K -11.14%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -5.53%E -2.99%K -6.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-05 21:49
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.53%E -3.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-05 22:25
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.92%EV -7.02%E -3.70%K -7.80%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.08%EV -7.06%E -3.88%K -8.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-05 22:30
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.57%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.09%E -4.49%K -10.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-05 22:14
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV +4.72%E +2.21%K +4.14%G +0.196%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -15.74%E -9.54%K -24.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 18:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.