The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Indianapolis Indians v Louisville Bats

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 17:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Indianapolis Indians (Local)

Prediction 52.46%1.91fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -4.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.80%52.24%52.52%57.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.771.791.8460.61%56.50%55.87%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Bats (Visit)

Prediction 47.54%2.10fair odd
EV +7.93%
Edge +3.49%
Kelly +6.24%
Growth +0.495%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.09%47.76%47.48%49.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.001.952.2752.63%50.00%51.28%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indianapolis Indians (Local): 52.46%; Louisville Bats (Visit): 47.54%. For Louisville Bats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -13.45%E -8.15%K -20.69%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.09%EV +7.93%E +3.49%K +6.24%G +0.495%4.7%2026-08-23 17:15
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.15%E -4.04%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.91%E -2.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 17:14
FanDuel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -6.11%E -3.41%K -7.73%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -5.86%E -2.96%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 17:19
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.58%E -3.10%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.29%E -3.74%K -7.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 17:17
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.58%E -3.10%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.29%E -3.74%K -7.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 17:19
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.73%E -5.02%K -11.79%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -7.29%E -3.74%K -7.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 17:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -3.48%E -1.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -9.66%E -5.09%K -10.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 17:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.