The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Gwinnett Stripers v Durham Bulls

Kickoff: 2026-05-12 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gwinnett Stripers (Local)

Prediction 56.41%1.77fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -2.76%
Kelly -6.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.76%56.91%56.31%60.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.631.621.6964.94%61.39%61.73%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Durham Bulls (Visit)

Prediction 43.59%2.29fair odd
EV +4.62%
Edge +1.93%
Kelly +3.30%
Growth +0.153%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.09%43.09%43.69%44.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.132.212.182.4046.95%45.18%45.87%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gwinnett Stripers (Local): 56.41%; Durham Bulls (Visit): 43.59%. For Durham Bulls (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -13.13%E -8.53%K -24.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV +4.62%E +1.93%K +3.30%G +0.153%6.6%2026-05-12 21:25
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.05%EV -12.57%E -8.11%K -22.85%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV +1.57%E +0.674%K +1.18%G +0.019%7.4%2026-05-12 21:30
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.38%EV -10.31%E -6.49%K -17.48%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.62%EV -2.79%E -1.25%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-12 21:35
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.62%E -5.32%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.10%E -1.86%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-12 22:00
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.80%E -3.47%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -4.97%E -2.28%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-12 21:30
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.67%E -2.76%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-12 21:30
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.67%E -2.76%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-12 21:55
Betway🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.62%E -5.32%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-12 21:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -4.67%E -2.76%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -7.15%E -3.36%K -6.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-12 21:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.