The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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El Paso Chihuahuas v Tacoma Rainiers

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 00:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

El Paso Chihuahuas (Local)

Prediction 46.41%2.15fair odd
EV -4.85%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -4.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%46.45%46.38%47.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.012.002.0551.02%49.83%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tacoma Rainiers (Visit)

Prediction 53.59%1.87fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -5.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.55%53.55%53.62%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.761.771.7857.80%56.96%56.50%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: El Paso Chihuahuas (Local): 46.41%; Tacoma Rainiers (Visit): 53.59%. For Tacoma Rainiers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.78, with an expected value of -4.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.85%E -2.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.76%E -3.88%K -9.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-05 17:49
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.85%E -2.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.76%E -3.88%K -9.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-05 18:52
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.62%E -2.59%K -5.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-05 17:25
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.15%E -2.91%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-05 17:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.15%E -2.91%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-05 18:05
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.15%E -2.91%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-05 18:25
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -9.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-05 17:50
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -9.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-05 18:55
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%EV -9.03%E -4.61%K -9.41%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.55%EV -5.15%E -2.91%K -6.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.