The School of Odds
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El Paso Chihuahuas v Tacoma Rainiers

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 00:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

El Paso Chihuahuas (Local)

Prediction 54.32%1.84fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -6.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.48%54.43%54.09%55.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.731.741.7558.82%57.73%57.47%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tacoma Rainiers (Visit)

Prediction 45.68%2.19fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -3.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.88%45.57%45.91%46.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.052.052.1050.00%48.86%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: El Paso Chihuahuas (Local): 54.32%; Tacoma Rainiers (Visit): 45.68%. For Tacoma Rainiers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -4.08%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -4.94%E -2.82%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -5.90%E -2.87%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-08 16:24
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.48%E -3.15%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.36%E -3.10%K -6.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 16:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.48%E -3.15%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.36%E -3.10%K -6.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 18:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.48%E -3.15%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.36%E -3.10%K -6.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 16:29
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.48%E -3.15%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.36%E -3.10%K -6.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 19:53
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -5.48%E -3.15%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -8.64%E -4.32%K -8.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-08 17:04
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.02%E -3.48%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.64%E -4.32%K -8.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-08 17:09
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.11%E -4.16%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.08%E -1.94%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-08 18:57
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.65%E -4.50%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%EV -5.90%E -2.87%K -5.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 18:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.