The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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El Paso Chihuahuas v Reno Aces

Kickoff: 2026-06-22 00:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

El Paso Chihuahuas (Local)

Prediction 57.62%1.74fair odd
EV +1.99%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +2.59%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%57.03%57.88%59.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.641.621.7763.69%61.03%61.73%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Reno Aces (Visit)

Prediction 42.38%2.36fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.78%42.97%42.12%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.212.242.2850.00%45.31%44.64%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: El Paso Chihuahuas (Local): 57.62%; Reno Aces (Visit): 42.38%. For El Paso Chihuahuas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +1.99%E +1.13%K +2.59%G +0.052%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -15.25%E -7.62%K -15.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-21 23:39
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-21 23:48
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -6.07%E -3.73%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-21 23:49
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.65%E -4.11%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.65%E -2.07%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-21 23:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.65%E -4.11%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.65%E -2.07%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-21 23:49
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.38%EV -8.38%E -5.27%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.62%EV -5.50%E -2.47%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-21 16:09
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.22%EV -9.53%E -6.07%K -16.72%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%EV -3.38%E -1.48%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-21 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.