The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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El Paso Chihuahuas v Reno Aces

Kickoff: 2026-06-21 00:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

El Paso Chihuahuas (Local)

Prediction 48.62%2.06fair odd
EV -5.18%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -5.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%49.37%48.93%52.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.901.931.9557.14%52.75%51.81%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Reno Aces (Visit)

Prediction 51.38%1.95fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.614%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.04%50.63%51.07%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.851.831.9755.56%54.10%54.64%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: El Paso Chihuahuas (Local): 48.62%; Reno Aces (Visit): 51.38%. For Reno Aces (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.95. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.97, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -14.91%E -8.52%K -19.88%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV +1.21%E +0.614%K +1.25%G +0.015%7.9%2026-06-20 15:49
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV -2.90%E -1.53%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-20 15:19
FanDuel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.95%E -2.68%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-21 00:29
Caesars🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.98%E -3.27%K -7.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-21 00:27
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.52%E -4.18%K -9.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-21 00:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.52%E -4.18%K -9.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-21 00:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.52%E -4.18%K -9.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-21 00:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.